Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics by Nemeth Mike;

Author:Nemeth, Mike; [Mike Nemeth]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Morgan James Publishing
Published: 2018-08-15T00:00:00+00:00

Chapter Six

Geek Numbers

What these geek numbers show—no

prove—is that the traditional yardsticks

of success for players and teams are

fatally flawed.

—From the jacket cover of

Moneyball by Michael Lewis

Now that we understand how teams score and prevent points, which is to say, how teams win football games, we can invent metrics to represent the deterministic factors to be combined in an algorithm to grade a team’s performance in a specific game. The factors I invented are listed below:

1.Long Field Efficiency—the percentage of long field possessions on which a team kicks a field goal or scores a touchdown. This statistic is collected for offense and defense. On average, the 21 sample teams scored on 39.83 percent of their long field possessions while their opponents scored on 22.38 percent. Oklahoma (56.20), UCF (52.34), and Oklahoma State (51.72) led this category playing against subpar defenses while Ohio State (49.33) and Alabama (49.12) were close behind against better defenses. On the other side of the ball, Clemson surrendered scores on only 15.38 percent of its opponents’ possessions. Alabama (16.15) and Wisconsin (17.04) were next best. USC was worst in this category at 32.9 percent. Oklahoma State (32.5), Stanford (32.1) and Oklahoma (31.9) were nearly as bad.

2.Long Field Proficiency—the number of points scored on long field possessions divided by the number of long field possessions. This statistic, which rewards a team for scoring touchdowns and not settling for field goals, is a modifier for Long Field Efficiency and is collected for both offense and defense. Sample teams averaged 2.48 points per long field possession while holding their collective opponents to 1.33 points. Oklahoma (3.64), UCF (3.34), and Oklahoma State (3.18) were best against weak defenses while Alabama (3.05) and Ohio State (3.04) were quite good against better defenses and the only other teams to average more than 3 points for every long field possession. On the defensive side of the ball, Alabama and Wisconsin gave up just 0.87 points per opponent long field possession and Clemson and Georgia were next best at 0.89 points. Stanford (1.94), Oklahoma (1.93), Oklahoma State (1.93), and USC (1.90) were easiest to score upon.

3.Explosive Plays—the number of plays covering at least twenty-five yards, including plays by the defense and special teams. The statistics is collected for offense and defense. As you might expect, UCF (73), Oklahoma State (69) and Oklahoma (67) were the most explosive teams during the 2017 season. Washington (13) and Alabama (22) surrendered the fewest explosive plays.

4.Average Field Position—the sum of all starting yard lines divided by the number of possessions, collected for offense and defense.

5.Drive stoppers. Collected only for the offense, this statistic records the percentage of long field possessions that are brought to a halt after an initial first down, by a turnover, a sack or a major penalty. UCF (12.5 percent) and Georgia (12.69) shot themselves in the foot least often. Wisconsin (25.95) and LSU (23.97) stopped themselves most often.

6.Third Down Avoidance Percentage. Third down plays divided by plays on first down. Measures a team’s ability to achieve another first down with a first or second down play.

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